Going into Amazon’s longest Prime Day event yet, Adobe Analytics projects consumers will spend $23.8 billion on ecommerce sites between July 8 and July 11.

The longer Prime Day event also comes as U.S. retailers navigate tariffs and could be a strategic play to mitigate their effects. Over the past few years, Amazon’s Prime Day event has had reverberations in ecommerce, leading other retailers to hold their own promotional periods to generate sales. In 2024, consumers spent $7 billion online outside Amazon on the second day of the Prime Day event. Meanwhile, Amazon didn’t share how much it generated in sales but did say it broke its own record.

Adobe said it expects four key trends to define the sales period:

1. Steeper discounts
2. An increase in back-to-school shopping
3. Continued growth in buy now, pay later (BNPL)
4. Increased impact of social media influencers on shopping behaviors

“Strong spending during the Prime Day event will be driven by net-new demand, as opposed to higher prices,” Adobe said. “The Adobe Digital Price Index, which tracks online prices across 18 product categories, shows that ecommerce prices have fallen for 33 months — down 2.01% YoY in May 2025. Adobe’s numbers are not adjusted for inflation, but if online inflation were factored in, there would be even higher growth in topline consumer spend.

Adobe Analytics data is based on more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories, according to the company. More than 200 online retailers in the Top 2000 use Adobe Analytics for their web analytics, and more than 100 use it for site design and development. Top 2000 online retailers also use it for content delivery and management, as an ecommerce platform, a marketing platform, for personalization and more.

Key trends during Prime Day 2025

After Amazon announced dates for its summer Prime Day event, competitors Walmart and Target did the same, as did other players in the ecommerce space.

Adobe expects paid search to “remain the top driver of retail sales” during Amazon’s 2025 Prime Day event. It anticipates paid search accounting for about 28% of revenue, which would be up 1% to 3% year over year.

It expects BNPL to drive between $1.8 billion and $1.9 billion in overall online spending during Amazon’s 2025 Prime Day sales event. That would represent an 8% share, up from 7.6% last year. For affiliates and partners — which include social media influencers — Adobe data indicates their share of revenue will be 19.9% on 16% year-over-year growth.

Adobe said its data also shows that “influencers are set to convert shoppers (individuals making a purchase after seeing influencer content) 10 times more than social media overall.”

Amazon ranks No. 1 in Digital Commerce 360’s Top 2000 Database. The database is how Digital Commerce 360 tracks the largest North American online retailers by their annual ecommerce sales. Walmart ranks No. 2 and Target is No. 3.

Amazon is also No. 3 in Digital Commerce 360’s Global Online Marketplaces Database. That database ranks the 100 largest global marketplaces by third-party gross merchandise value (GMV). Walmart ranks No. 8 in that database, and Target is No. 64.

Amazon is among the “Big Four” Mass Merchants that Digital Commerce 360 covers in depth as part of the State of American Ecommerce Report.

Prime Day 2025 sales projection

Adobe referred to Amazon’s Prime Day event as “Black Friday in the summer.”

The $23.8 billion projection that Adobe anticipates Prime Day 2025 to generate in U.S. ecommerce sales would be 28.4% year-over-year growth. It would also be $9.6 billion more than the Amazon Prime Day sales event in 2024.

Adobe notes that if its projection is correct, the summer Amazon Prime Day event would generate the equivalent of two 2024 Black Fridays — it drove $10.8 billion in ecommerce sales. And similar to the overall 2024 holiday shopping season, Adobe expects mobile shopping to hit an all-time high, driving 52.5% of U.S. online sales during the event. That would be about $12.5 billion.

Overall, Adobe projects U.S. retailers’ discounts to be 10% to 24% off listed prices, with the apparel category having the largest deals at 24% (which compares to 20% for the category last year).

Other categories Adobe expects to have large discounts include:

• Electronics at 22% (vs. 23%)
• Televisions at 17% (vs. 16%)
• Appliances at 16% (vs. 14%)
• Toys at 15% (vs. 15%)
• Furniture at 14% (vs. 16%)
• Computers at 12% (vs. 11%)
• Sporting goods at 10% (vs. 11%).

Additionally, Adobe expects those discounts to lead consumers to “trade up” to higher-ticket items. It sees the share of the most expensive goods increasing by 18% compared to average year-to-date levels. In the electronics category, that share could rise by 52%, Adobe said. That share could increase 32% for sporting goods, 29% for appliances and 28% for furniture. To lesser extents, it could grow 18% for toys, 15% for personal care and 9% for apparel.

Adobe sees the share of expensive goods dropping for two categories: home and garden (down 4%) and grocery (down 6%).

Back-to-school shopping during Prime Day 2025

Adobe expects large increases in sales for key back-to-school items during the Prime Day 2025 event. That includes products for students from kindergarten through varying levels of higher education.

• Backpacks and lunchboxes (up 225% compared to the daily average in June 2025)
• Kid’s apparel (up 200%)
• General school/office supplies (up 180%).
• Headphones & speakers (up 150%)
• Computers (up 140%)
• Microwaves (up 75%)
• Twin/full mattresses & toppers (up 55%)
• Bedroom/bathroom linens (up 49%)

Outside of back-to-school, Adobe said, it expects sales growth in:

• Home security products (up 200% compared to the daily average in June 2025)
• E-readers (up 180%)
• Televisions (up 150%)
• Luggage (up 130%)
• Streaming devices (up 135%)
• Vacuums (up 130%)
• Small kitchen appliances (up 95%)
• Smartphones (up 90%)
• Smart home items (up 80%)
• Books (up 65%)

How generative AI plays into Prime Day 2025

During the 2024 holiday shopping season, Adobe “observed the first material surge in generative AI traffic to U.S. retail sites.”

Between Nov. 1, 2024, and Dec. 31, 2024, Adobe said traffic from generative AI sources increased by 1,300% compared to the prior year.

“This trend continues to persist,” Adobe said in a statement. “During the Prime Day event, Adobe expects traffic from generative AI sources to increase by 3,200% YoY. And while AI-driven traffic remains modest compared to other channels such as paid search or email, the growth shows the value consumers are seeing in leveraging AI to quickly find information on deals and product details.”

In a survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers, Adobe found that the task most respondents said they use generative AI for was conducting research (55%). Meanwhile, 47% used it for product recommendations and 43% for seeking deals. Other uses include:

• Getting present ideas (35%)
• Finding unique products (35%)
• Creating shopping lists (33%)

Of those who have used generative AI for shopping — also called agentic commerce — 92% said it enhanced their experience. 87% said they are more likely to use AI for larger or more complex purchases.

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