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Consumers continue to spend earlier than they intended as a way to get ahead of tariffs, which "will inevitably lead to higher prices," said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO, in a statement.

Online retail sales continued a growth trend in April “as many consumers moved up buying to avoid higher prices expected to come with tariffs,” according to the National Retail Federation and CNBC.

Tariffs “will inevitably lead to higher prices,” said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO, in a statement.

“Despite declines in confidence caused by the economic uncertainty that has come with tariffs, consumer fundamentals remain intact,” Shay said. He added, “Consumers maintain their ability to spend and have strong reasons to spend now before tariffs can drive up prices or cause shortages on store shelves.”

Jack Kleinhenz, NRF’s chief economist, said in a statement that although tariffs president Donald Trump has imposed have not yet led the United States into a recession, worries over the economy are widespread.

“The possibility of a U.S. recession in the near future has increased due to rising trade tensions and other economic factors, but it hasn’t happened yet,” Kleinhenz said.

Online retail sales in April

April online retail sales growth was nearly flat compared to March, bumping up 0.62%. That’s slightly slower than March’s growth over February, 0.79%.

Year over year, it was the reverse, with April’s growth just higher than March’s — 27.67% compared to 27.62%.

Meanwhile, total retail sales were nearly flat month over month in April, according to the NRF, growing 0.72%. They also grew 6.76% compared to April 2024.

CNBC and NRF’s Retail Monitor exclude automobile and gasoline from their calculation of total retail sales. Additionally, they identify a calculation for “core” retail sales, which exclude restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gas stations.

Core retail sales, they said, grew at slightly higher rates. Compared to March, April core retail sales were mostly flat, growing 0.9%. And compared to April 2024, core retail sales increased 7.11%.

That compares with a 0.4% month over month increase in March, as well as 5.07% year-over-year growth.

NRF says the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

“With so much uncertainty surrounding the economy in the past few months, I’m not sure anyone can predict the storm path of tariffs and their likely impact,” Kleinhenz said. “The wide range of uncertainty has introduced a high level of unpredictability and has raised the probability of a significantly slower pace for the U.S. economy. … Everyone is worried, and a lot of people have recession on their minds.”

NRF monthly sales growth breakdown by category

Sales increased month over month in almost all retail categories

  • Online and other nonstore sales grew 0.62% month over month in April.
  • Electronics and appliance stores (up 2.8%)
  • Grocery and beverage stores (up 0.59%)
  • Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores (up 0.81%)
  • Health and personal care stores (up 1.43%)
  • Clothing and accessories stores (up 1.14%)
  • Furniture and home furnishings stores (up 0.86%)
  • Building and garden supply stores (up 2.77%)
  • General merchandise stores decreased 0.02%

Sales grew year over year in almost all categories

  • Online and other nonstore sales increased 27.67% year over year in April.
  • Electronics and appliance stores (up 10.5%)
  • Grocery and beverage stores (up 9.51%)
  • Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores (up 9.19%)
  • Health and personal care stores (up 8.51%)
  • General merchandise stores (up 6.67%)
  • Clothing and accessories stores (up 5.14%)
  • Furniture and home furnishings stores (up 0.09%)
  • Building and garden supply stores (down 2.1%)

Click here to read last month’s update on U.S. online retail sales.

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