(Bloomberg)—The curtain could soon fall on the last in a trilogy of European Union antitrust fines for Alphabet Inc.’s Google.
Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager is set to announce a penalty targeting the AdSense advertising service in the coming weeks, according to people familiar with the probe who spoke on condition of anonymity. Regulators were probing whether Google’s advertising contracts unfairly restricted rivals. The timing is tentative and could still be pushed back, the people said.
The penalty will mark the culmination—for now—of more than eight years of active antitrust investigation into the U.S. tech giant. The company has already racked up 6.7 billion euros ($7.6 billion) in fines and faces a potential threat of more if it doesn’t obey EU orders to change its behavior.
The EU said in 2016 that Google hindered competition for online ads with its AdSense for Search product which places advertising on websites, including retailers, telecommunications operators and newspapers. While its European market share is more than 80%, AdSense contributed less than 20%t of Google’s total ad revenue in 2015, a percentage that has declined steadily since 2010.
The commission in July fined Google a record 4.3 billion euros ($4.9 billion) in the Android case, demanding that the company change the way it puts search and web-browser apps onto Android mobile devices. A year earlier, Google received a then-record 2.4 billion-euro ($2.7 billion) penalty after regulators accused it of skewing results to thwart smaller shopping search services.
The fine is likely to be lower than in the previous cases, because Google has collaborated with the commission and has already introduced changes in AdSense, according to Aitor Ortiz, an analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence in London.
“A fine isn’t likely to cause long-term harm to the company as AdSense has been replaced by other products,” he said. “If you look at the annual reports, AdSense is less and less relevant.”
Google and the commission in Brussels declined to comment on the timing of the fine decision.
Vestager in November said the AdSense probe was reaching the end but wouldn’t be finalized before the new year. Officials allege that the company prevented customers from accepting rival search ads from 2006 and maintained restrictions on how competitors’ ads were displayed when it altered contracts in 2009.
The Danish EU commissioner has rejected claims she’s singling out U.S. tech giants for special treatment, despite a series of high-profile decisions targeting American companies, including Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc.