The National Retail Federation (NRF) sees growth in its forecast for online sales during the 2024 holiday shopping season.

NRF projects total holiday sales in 2024 will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. That would equate to between $979.5 billion and $989 billion in total holiday spending in November and December 2024. That also compares with $955.6 billion in total holiday spending in the United States in 2023.

“The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum heading into the final months of the year,” said NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay, in a statement.

NRF’s calculation excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail. NRF defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31.

NRF forecasts online sales growth during 2024 holiday shopping season

In 2023, online sales accounted for about 28.6% of total holiday shopping sales. Based on the NRF forecast for the 2024 holiday shopping season, online sales will represent about 30.1% of total sales.

The NRF forecast projects online holiday sales in 2024 to grow at a rate of 8% to 9% year over year. That’s more than double the forecast for total sales this holiday season.

Furthermore, that growth rate would put 2024 online holiday sales between $295.1 billion and $297.9 billion, up from $273.3 billion in 2023.

For reference, online and non-store sales in 2023 grew 10.7% over 2022, NRF said.

“We remain optimistic about the pace of economic activity and growth projected in the second half of the year,” said NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz, in a statement. “Household finances are in good shape and an impetus for strong spending heading into the holiday season, though households will spend more cautiously.”

NRF highlighted one key dynamic in the 2024 holiday shopping season that differs from last year. Notably the period between Thanksgiving and Christmas is five days shorter this year, for a total of 26 days. That, in addition to the economic impacts of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, plus the 2024 U.S. presidential election could all weigh in on holiday spending in 2024 — online and offline.

Hiring seasonal workers

Although NRF forecasts more holiday sales in 2024 than in 2023 — online and in physical stores — it expects retailers to hire fewer seasonal workers.

NRF forecasts U.S. retailers hiring between 400,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers this year, “some of which may have been pulled into October to support retailers’ holiday buying events this month.”

That’s less than last year, when retailers hired 509,000 seasonal workers, according to NRF data.

Meanwhile, the United States Postal Service announced Oct. 15 that it plans to hire 7,500 seasonal staff.

“With a stabilized workforce and improved operating processes, the Postal Service plans to hire 7,500 seasonal staff, compared with 10,000 last year,” USPS said.

That’s part of a plan to increase daily processing capacity to about 60 million packages, USPS said. The Postal Service added that it has “nearly tripled” its daily package processing capacity since 2020.

Additionally, USPS is adding 106,000 “new, more reliable vehicles” to its fleet. Of them, 66,000 will be zer0-emission electric vehicles, USPS announced.

“Our operational, transportation and delivery processes have never been more finely tuned, and I am fully confident in our ability to once again handle the peak holiday season surge,” said postmaster general and USPS CEO Louis DeJoy. “We are strongly positioned to deliver exceptional, affordable service to the American people during the holidays and beyond.”

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