Artificial intelligence — and especially agentic AI — will play a key role in discovery during the upcoming holiday sales season, according to a set of predictions from ecommerce software provider Salesforce.
In May, Salesforce found that 6% of U.S. consumers were starting their online searches using a large language model (LLM), such as ChatGPT or Perplexity. By the end of August, that had increased to 9% of U.S. consumers. Gen Z and millennial consumers lead the charge in that trend, according to Salesforce data, but baby boomers went from 0% adoption in May to 3% adoption by the end of August. Additionally, Salesforce found that 20% of U.S. consumers are using agentic search at some point during their buying journey, even if they aren’t starting with it.
That AI usage stems in part from consumers trying to find the right products and get the value they’re looking for in their purchases. Caila Schwartz, director of consumer insights at Salesforce, told Digital Commerce 360 that consumers have been cautious so far in 2025.
“Shoppers told us pretty much the same thing that they told us in 2024, which is that they’re buying less,” Schwartz said. “They’re prioritizing essentials and they’re trading down for lower-priced goods.”
In North America, 76 of the Top 2000 online retailers use Salesforce as their ecommerce platform, according to Digital Commerce 360 data. In 2024, those 76 online retailers combined for more than $182.46 billion in web sales. The Top 2000 is Digital Commerce 360’s database ranking North America’s largest online retailers by their annual ecommerce sales.
Salesforce’s 5 holiday sales predictions
Schwartz said the theme Salesforce has identified going into the 2025 holiday shopping season is “discovery.” Between LLMs and TikTok search, the way consumers find products is shaping their buying decisions and the way they interact with brands, she said.
This holiday season, Salesforce predicts agentic search will also be a part of the in-store shopping process for consumers using AI. Furthermore, it expects a pair of trends to impact pricing in November and December.
Altogether, Salesforce has released five predictions for the holiday shopping season:
- Online holiday sales will once again break records.
- The average discount rate will increase year over year.
- Agentic AI will drive nearly a fifth of U.S. online holiday sales.
- Tariffs will continue shifting consumer behavior, pushing toward more resale.
- Physical stores will play a prominent role in shopping behavior.
Those vary slightly from its mid-summer predictions, which also focused on:
- Hyper-personalized product discovery
- AI agents boosting employee productivity
- Price and quality of products driving consumer loyalty
Remaining the same since the summer — with new data to back them — are Salesforce’s predictions that omnichannel strategies will “supercharge” sales and that trade uncertainty will increase the amount of resale.
1. Online holiday sales will once again break records.
Salesforce predicts consumers globally will spend $1.25 trillion in online sales between November and December. If correct, that would amount to a 4% increase year over year, based on Salesforce’s 2024 holiday season data.
In the U.S., Salesforce is projecting a smaller increase in holiday sales. It expects $288 billion in holiday online sales, which would be a 2.1% increase.
Salesforce also projected online holiday sales for Canada and some European countries:
- Canada: $14.7 billion, which would be a 2% increase
- France: $14.9 billion (up 8.3%)
- Germany: $20.2 billion (up 3.2%)
- Italy: $11.3 billion (up 15.6%)
- Spain: $11.3 billion (up 15.6%)
- United Kingdom: $38.5 billion (up 6.5%)
These figures reflect Salesforce’s total market projections, as opposed to sales from the software provider’s global clients.
2. The average discount rate will increase year over year.
The U.S. and Canada will have the largest average discount rates, according to Salesforce’s projections. It expects both countries to have an average discount rate of 29% during Cyber Week (the period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday).
During the overall holiday season (Nov. 1 through Dec. 31), Salesforce expects Canada to have the highest average discounts, at 23%. That’s slightly higher than the U.S. and Salesforce’s projection for the average global discount rate.
It also projected general apparel (37%), health and beauty (35%) and home (23%) products will have the largest discount rates during Cyber Week.
3. Agentic AI will drive nearly a fifth of U.S. online holiday sales.
Salesforce predicts AI and agents will drive $263 billion in global online sales and $51 billion in the U.S.
Schwartz clarified that the projections reflect consumers using AI and agents to find and purchase products, not necessarily completing transactions using those tools.
“The reason why we see consumers moving into agentic searches and this technology is that’s all that personalization,” Schwartz told Digital Commerce 360. “They’re getting the best personalized product recommendations that are curated specifically to them and they’re able to ask really nuanced questions about a problem they’re trying to solve.”
Salesforce found that online traffic from AI assistants grew 119% year over year in the first half of 2025. Schwartz noted that it’s “still the very early days” of using AI this way, so that still represents “a small percentage of overall traffic.”
However, AI-generated traffic converts at a rate 700% than social media traffic, according to Salesforce data. Furthermore, it converts at a rate 200% higher than all other sources of traffic minus social media.
Schwartz said AI-powered search is showing “really strong adoption numbers for a technology that is still very, very young.”
She said “what was most compelling” in Salesforce’s data is that 57% of AI users in the U.S. said they’re engaging agentic search in physical stores. Additionally, 87% of U.S. shoppers using AI said in August that they trust the recommendations they get. That’s up from 45% who shared the same sentiment in May.
4. Tariffs will continue shifting consumer behavior, pushing toward more resale.
About half of U.S. consumers plan to gift a resale item this holiday season, according to Salesforce data. Globally, Salesforce predicts $64 billion in holiday online sales will come from resale.
Most consumers Salesforce surveyed cited saving money as their main reason (70%). However, availability (33%), sustainability and reducing waste (25%) and convenience (25%) were also key reasons. And 20% of U.S. consumers who are planning to buy secondhand this holiday season are doing so because of tariffs.
“We also see younger consumers — so Gen Z and millennials — are leaning more heavily into resale as a legitimate channel to build their gift list from and a way to circumvent the impact of tariffs and supply chain issues,” Schwartz said.
Part of this will stem from a reduction in promotions, according to Salesforce’s predictions. It expects a 2% reduction in the rate of orders that will transact using a promo code at checkout.
5. Physical stores will play a prominent role in shopping behavior.
Salesforce projects the leading two shopping destinations that U.S. consumers select this holiday season will be online marketplaces (79% of consumers) and physical stores (76%).
It projects that the other leading destinations will be:
- Retailer websites (where 41% of consumers will buy)
- Brand websites (38%)
- Social media platforms (24%)
- Delivery applications such as DoorDash, Instacart and Uber Eats (14%)
83% of last year’s holiday retail sales came from physical stores, based on Salesforce data.
“We are not moving into a reality where digital is the only and supreme channel,” Schwartz noted. “What we’re seeing is that our youngest and largest consumer segment, Gen Z, actually has a really strong preference for the store.”
Overall across the season, two in three U.S. Gen Z consumers plan to shop in physical stores this holiday season, according to Salesforce data. They cited four key reasons:
- The experience.
- Getting their products immediately.
- Touching and feeling the merchandise.
- Discovering new products because it’s easier to browse.
Moreover, Salesforce data indicates that for every $1 that Gen Z consumers spend online this holiday shopping season, they will spend $3 more in physical stores.
“What’s really important for the industry overall to understand is that it’s not the store and it’s not digital,” Schwartz said. “They are not two unique channels, but really one experience that the consumer is using to discover, research, purchase and follow up in a post-purchase experience.”
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