Import cargo levels in the U.S. are about to drop as fluctuating tariffs leave businesses uncertain of how to proceed with their operations, according to data from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates’ Global Port Tracker.

Retailers and B2B companies alike have been sharing their approaches in responding to tariffs during earnings calls for more than a month. However, the U.S.’ tariffs policy continues to shift. That’s leaving retailers and B2B companies increasingly hesitant to give firm financial outlooks or share operational changes.

For example, President Donald Trump had set a minimum of 10% tariffs on April 2 for all U.S. trading partners. Some were as high as 50%. China then announced tariffs on U.S. goods. After a back and forth, the Trump administration announced additional tariffs on goods from China. As of April 10, the U.S. had raised the tariff rate to 145% for imports from China. And as of April 11, China has retaliated with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods.

As a result of the shifting tariff rates, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said he expects import levels in the second half of 2025 to drop at least 20% year over year. Even with elevated import levels early in the year as retailers sought to bring merchandise in before it would be subject to tariff costs, that could bring total 2025 import cargo volume down 15% or more, he said.

“In this environment of complete uncertainty, our forecast for import cargo will be subject to significant adjustments over the coming months,” Hackett said in a statement released with the National Retail Federation. “At present, we expect to see imports begin to decline by May and that they will drop dramatically during the remainder of the year.”

Tariffs causing drop in import levels

Although retailers have been bringing merchandise into the country for months in an attempt to mitigate the effects of rising tariffs, “that opportunity has come to an end,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy, in a statement.

Tariffs “are creating anxiety and uncertainty for American businesses and families alike with the speed at which they are being implemented and stacked upon each other,” Gold said. “At this point, retailers are expected to pull back and rely on built-up inventories, at least long enough to see what will happen next.”

And when companies are sending shipments to ports, they aren’t always processed correctly, said J. Bennett, chief customer officer at Signifyd. Many of the company’s clients are facing this issue, as there are often not enough people at ports, or the ones there are unclear about the most updated tariff policies, Bennett told Digital Commerce 360.

Signifyd is a payment security and fraud prevention company. 231 of the Top 2000 retailers in North America use it. Moreover, those 231 combined for more than $232.38 billion in 2024 online sales. The Top 2000 is Digital Commerce 360’s database ranking the region’s largest online retailers by their annual ecommerce sales.

Reduced — and even delayed — shipments will lead to more chargebacks for retailers, Bennett said.

“The American consumer suffers no fools,” Bennett told Digital Commerce 360. Bennett added that “any kind of issue with service, with missed expectations, the U.S. consumer is ruthless, especially now that people are value seeking and they really are being careful with what they’re buying.”

American consumers, he specified, are willing to refuse to pay for items because of shipping delays and price increases. He recommends retailers become more transparent with consumers when shipments are delayed.

Changes to shipping norms because of tariffs

U.S. ports that Global Port Tracker covers handled 2.06 million 20-foot-equivalent units in February. (Ports have not yet reported March figures, Global Port Tracker said.) Although some haven’t reported final data yet, Global Port Tracker said, that was a 7.5% decrease from January, but a 5.2% year-over-year increase from February 2024. February is typically the slowest month of the year for imports, Global Port Tracker said, as factories in China shut down for Lunar New Year.

In a March statement, Hackett said carriers will likely make more use of larger vessels. He added that they’d also likely consolidate stops at major ports rather than making multiple stops at smaller ports.

“Given that a significant portion of the global container fleet has been built in China, this means that there will be further costs that will be passed on to cargo owners and ultimately the consumer,” Hackett said in the March statement. “Ports accommodated the surge in import volume in the final quarter of 2024 without major issues, but this will place additional pressure on the supply chain while also harming the nation’s smaller ports.”

Who do tariffs affect?

At this stage, tariffs are affecting retailers and other businesses, large and small, as well as consumers.

“More tariffs equal more anxiety and uncertainty for American businesses and consumers,” said David French, NRF executive vice president of government relations, in a statement on April 2, responding to tariffs President Trump announced that day on all U.S. trade partners. “While leaders in Washington may not care about higher prices, hardworking American families do.”

French added that voters do not see tariffs as helping vulnerable communities, including:

• Blue-collar workers
• Rural communities
• Families with young children
• Low-income households
• The elderly
• Farmers

“Tariffs are a tax paid by the U.S. importer that will be passed along to the end consumer,” he said. “Tariffs will not be paid by foreign countries or suppliers.”

He called the immediate implementation of tariffs “a massive undertaking.” It requires “both advance notice and substantial preparation by the millions of U.S. businesses that will be directly impacted,” French said.

Do you rank in our databases? 

Submit your data and we’ll see where you fit in our next ranking update.

Sign up

Stay on top of the latest developments in the online retail industry. Sign up for a complimentary subscription to Digital Commerce 360 Retail News. Follow us on LinkedIn, X (formerly Twitter), Facebook and YouTube. Be the first to know when Digital Commerce 360 publishes news content.