U.S. ecommerce sales grew in Q1, but at the slowest rate in more than two years, according to Digital Commerce 360 analysis of U.S. Department of Commerce data.
That ends a nearly two-year streak in which U.S. ecommerce sales growth was at least double the rate of total sales growth. However, ecommerce sales still increased at a rate of about 1.5 times total sales growth. Meanwhile, total sales growth remained generally consistent with 2024’s pace.
U.S. ecommerce sales in Q1 grew 6.1% year over year, according to the Commerce Department. That marks the 15th consecutive quarter with ecommerce sales growth less than 10% (they grew 13.9% in Q2 2021). Prior to Q2 2021, ecommerce sales had only grown less than 10% year over year in a quarter one time — in Q1 2019 — going back to 2010.
Commerce Department data on ecommerce sales goes back to the year 2000. Between 2000 and 2010, the only quarters to grow ecommerce sales less than 10% were during the Great Recession. That period was also the only time to date that U.S. ecommerce sales were negative year over year.
“Q1 2025 showed the effect of tariffs and overall economic uncertainty on U.S. ecommerce growth,” said Jon Love, research data manager at Digital Commerce 360. “While retail sales continue to move online, stagnant total retail sales and higher prices of goods undoubtedly played a role in one of the slowest-growing quarters in recent ecommerce history.”
U.S. ecommerce growth in Q1
As sales continue moving online, ecommerce sales have grown year over year for every quarter going back to Q2 2009. That’s one of just three quarters (along with the two directly preceding it) to have negative year-over-year ecommerce growth, directly attributable to the Great Recession.
And although sales growth has been positive going into the pandemic, concerns of another recession, along with inflation and geopolitical crises in Europe and the Middle East, have slowed growth since 2022.
Growth is still the trend, though, even if the pace is slower.
Q1 2025 was the first time since 2021 that a Q1’s sales were lower than each of the three quarters directly preceding it. Q1 2025 and 2022 marked the only times since 2009 that a first quarter’s ecommerce sales were not greater than the prior year’s Q2.
U.S. businesses’ and consumers’ concerns about tariffs could play a role in the slower growth, deterring some consumers from making discretionary purchases. However, analysts also have been saying in April and May that some consumers have moved up their spending to avoid tariff costs. Nevertheless, uncertainty is widespread, according to Jack Kleinhenz, the National Retail Federation’s chief economist.
“The possibility of a U.S. recession in the near future has increased due to rising trade tensions and other economic factors, but it hasn’t happened yet,” Kleinhenz said in a May statement.
How much of total U.S. retail sales came from ecommerce in Q1 2025?
The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce estimates that U.S. retail ecommerce sales in Q1 2025 totaled $300.2 billion. That’s a 0.4% increase compared to Q4 2024, the Commerce Department said. It also estimated that total U.S. retail sales reached about $1.858 trillion.
Excluding spending in segments that don’t typically sell online, that comes out to about $1.216 trillion, according to Digital Commerce 360 analysis. Moreover, U.S. ecommerce sales with those exclusions totaled about $275.76 billion in Q1, Digital Commerce 360 analysis shows.
How is ecommerce penetration calculated?
Including all retail and food-service sales, U.S. ecommerce accounted for 16.2% of total sales in Q1 2025, according to the Commerce Department. Unadjusted figures show U.S. ecommerce sales represented 15.9% of total sales in Q1, the Commerce Department said. It estimates that total, unadjusted U.S. ecommerce sales in Q4 2024 reached $275.8 billion.
Digital Commerce 360 studies non-seasonally adjusted commerce department data and excludes spending in segments that don’t typically sell online. These segments include:
- Restaurants
- Bars
- Automobile dealers
- Gas stations
- Fuel dealers
U.S. ecommerce penetration reflects the share of dollars consumers could potentially spend online.
The Commerce Department defines ecommerce sales as the sales of goods and services where an order is placed by the buyer or price and terms of sales are negotiated over:
- Internet
- Extranet
- Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) network
- Electronic mail
- Other online system
Payment may or may not be made online. The Commerce Department publishes estimates it adjusts for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes.
Percentage changes may not align exactly with dollar figures due to rounding. Here’s last quarter’s update on U.S. ecommerce sales.
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