As 2026 begins and the 2025 holiday season moves into the rear view, online retailers have their eyes on returns, and new survey data from FedEx Corp. and Morning Consult shows that merchants and consumers alike see key shifts underway.

Not only did the business shippers surveyed in the January report say that they expected heightened levels of returns compared to a year earlier; they also saw consumer use of artificial intelligence (AI) and issues such as clear messaging and friction playing important roles.

In fact, when it comes to return logistics, merchants appeared more inclined to charge return fees in 2025, with 40% of businesses indicating that they did so. Beneath that change, merchants cited inflation and tariffs as top reasons.

How are merchant policies on returns changing?

Merchants already know that returns policies can impact conversion. Consumer responses in the new survey results underscore that influence, with 59% of consumers responding that they would consider avoiding a retailer when they know the store charges fees for returns. Nevertheless, young shoppers appeared more willing to pay those fees, while Gen X (65%) and Baby Boomers (72%) showed the highest likelihood of moving on to another option.

Still, with more than one in three survey respondents saying they expected to do more holiday shopping online than they did in previous years and Gen Z and Millennials leading that trend, according to the report, online retailers may have a unique opportunity to balance returns costs while still converting new, younger generations of customers.

In the meantime, merchant fees for returns have become more common over the past year, the report’s authors observed. Small businesses showed the largest shift toward charging, up to 40% in 2025 from 25% in 2024.

Rising use of AI in returns

The report showed that the use of AI by merchants and consumers alike is on the rise. While 37% of merchants responded that they already used AI to help with returns, an additional 51% acknowledged that they plan to deploy AI solutions in the future. The most common use cases included inventory management, fraud detection and return-rate forecasting.

Meanwhile, 20% of consumers said they were using AI chatbots to find returns info. Notably, 53% of those who used it for customer support indicated that they preferred it to human agents. However, they expressed lower levels of trust when dealing with those AI chatbots and agents. That trust gap highlights a significant challenge, even as online retailers cater to rising levels of comfort with AI options.

“At a time when returns are becoming more frequent and more complex, reducing friction is critical for customers — especially following the busiest shopping season of the year,” said Jason Brenner, a senior vice president for the digital portfolio at FedEx. “AI is playing an increasingly central role in that effort, including helping shoppers source information about a brand’s returns policy, leveraging AI-powered customer support, and personalized AI-generated recommendations to streamline their return.”

What matters most when managing returns

Ultimately, returns policies are made at the intersection of business concerns, inventory and what customers demand. More than 80% of merchants surveyed agreed that inflation played a role in changes to their shipping returns strategy or policies in 2025. Nearly the same share agreed that tariffs played a role in those decisions during the same period of time.

As businesses digest those costs and adjust their returns policies as a result, convenience remains a magnet for shoppers. For example, the share of consumers using no-label/no-box returns increased year over year to 41% from 31% in 2024. That growth alone characterizes consumer willingness to choose options when friction is reduced.

Nearly half of the Top 2000 retailers in North America use FedEx as a shipping carrier, according to Digital Commerce 360 data. The Top 2000 refers to North America’s largest online retailers by annual ecommerce sales.

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