A.P. Moller–Maersk is sounding the alarm on rising delivery costs and shrinking logistics flexibility as the North American parcel market braces for peak ecommerce season.
In its November update on the North American market, the shipping and logistics giant said last-mile delivery now accounts for as much as 40% of total logistics spend, underscoring how costly it has become to meet customer expectations for speed and reliability.
The U.S. parcel market continues to expand rapidly, with total shipments exceeding 22 billion packages so far this year. Additionally, Maersk estimates industry revenue between $130 billion and $140 billion. But that growth has come with mounting strain. Major carriers have added temporary surcharges of up to $8.75 per residential delivery and $94 for oversized packages. That has driven up costs for brands already grappling with tariff volatility and tight freight capacity.
The surge in online shopping — combined with lingering trade and customs complexity — has stretched parcel and ground networks from October through January. Maersk said many consumers have begun buying earlier than usual to avoid tariff uncertainty, flattening the traditional holiday demand spike and making forecasting even harder for retailers and distributors.
How Maersk is bracing for peak season
“We’re seeing a shift from speed at any cost to resilience, predictability and cost control,” the company said in the report. “Businesses that diversify carriers and use AI-based routing can protect service quality even as congestion and surcharges rise.”
Maersk pointed to one apparel customer that recently switched part of its parcel volume to the company’s domestic delivery service and achieved 33% cost savings in just two weeks. It cut $11,000 in expenses on 4,282 parcels and projects half a million dollars in annual savings.
The company’s AI-driven parcel model automatically selects the best carrier based on real-time rates, capacity and performance. It has become a cornerstone of its ecommerce strategy. The system not only improves delivery accuracy but also reduces fuel consumption and offers clients a single point of contact with consolidated invoicing.
Behind the cost pressures, Maersk said the broader U.S. freight landscape remains fragile going into peak season. More than 100 small trucking carriers have exited the market since mid-2025. That has tightened capacity just as parcel demand accelerates. At the same time, warehousing networks are consolidating and automating. Companies are pushing inventory closer to consumers and building redundancy into fulfillment operations.
For manufacturers and distributors expanding into ecommerce, the update signals a clear warning. Last-mile costs and capacity management can no longer be treated as back-office concerns. With delivery surcharges rising and customers expecting transparency and precision, logistics strategy has become central to digital competitiveness.
Maersk urged shippers to lock in parcel rates early, diversify carrier networks and enable flexible pickup and delivery windows before the holiday rush peaks.
“Evaluate your parcel strategy now,” the company advised. “Because by the time volumes spike, it’s too late to protect service and margins.”
Sign up
Sign up for a complimentary subscription to Digital Commerce 360 B2B News. It covers technology and business trends in the growing B2B ecommerce industry. Contact Mark Brohan, senior vice president of B2B and Market Research, at mark@digitalcommerce360.com. Follow him on Twitter @markbrohan. Follow us on LinkedIn, X (formerly Twitter), Facebook and YouTube.