Escalating war in the Middle East is not just a geopolitical flashpoint — it is reshaping the logistics landscape that underpins global trade and U.S. B2B ecommerce fulfillment.

Countries have shut down airports, carriers are rerouting, insurers are withdrawing coverage, and one of the world’s most critical shipping chokepoints is under acute pressure. The result: rising costs, longer transit times and sharper uncertainty in supply chains that many U.S. distributors and ecommerce platforms rely on to deliver goods on time and at promised prices.

Over the past three days, major Middle Eastern airports — including Dubai International, Abu Dhabi, Doha, Bahrain and Kuwait City — either closed or operated under severe restrictions as combat operations between Iran and the U.S.-backed Israel and airspace shutdowns rippled across the region. These closures have grounded thousands of flights, not just passenger jets but a substantial share of regional air cargo capacity. Reuters reported skies around the Gulf empty of commercial traffic at the height of the disruption, with flights canceled and forwarders warning of backlogs when airspace eventually reopens.

Impact of Middle East war on B2B commerce

These hubs are far more than passenger gateways. Dubai is a major global air cargo transfer point linking Asia, Europe and North America. When that network falters, time-sensitive shipments lose a critical transit option. Those shipments range from high-value industrial components to specialized equipment and medical supplies.  Air cargo rates have so far remained stable. But with reduced lift and congested gateways, upward pressure on prices could follow if carriers and forwarders begin to reroute or expand surcharges.

Airlines such as Emirates, Qatar Airways, Etihad Airways and Flydubai suspended operations amid rising security risks. Some cargo and repatriation flights have resumed at limited scale, but full commercial service remains disrupted. The intermittent nature of these restarts complicates planning for freight forwarders and ecommerce sellers who balance inventory timing against customer delivery commitments.

Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, warned that sustained airspace uncertainty “could reduce available lift, particularly if shippers divert time-sensitive cargo from ocean to air.” Levine said that adds a layer of risk that could stress freight budgets and lead times for B2B ecommerce logistics partners.

On the maritime side, Gulf ports have also felt the strain.

The Port of Jebel Ali in Dubai is one of the largest container hubs in the Middle East, handling millions of TEUs annually. It suspended operations after a fire caused by aerial debris. Even short interruptions at such critical nodes can reverberate throughout transshipment patterns, yard utilization and vessel schedules. That complicates inbound flows for goods routed through Dubai for consolidation or onward movement.

How a foreign war ties into U.S. B2B ecommerce

The risk is especially acute for U.S. B2B sellers whose suppliers or fulfillment partners stage inventory in Gulf facilities for reexport elsewhere. Delays and bundling disruptions at hubs like Jebel Ali can extend total transit time. They also can erode the predictability businesses rely on to set available-to-promise dates.

Perhaps nowhere is the logistics risk more concentrated than in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea passage linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the open ocean. 25% of global seaborne oil trade and about 20% of liquefied natural gas pass through this chokepoint annually. That underscores its strategic and economic importance.

While the Strait has not been formally closed by any nation, warnings from Iranian military authorities and attacks on commercial vessels have led many shippers to avoid the route as a precaution. That contributes to a virtual standstill for certain traffic.

Marine insurers have responded by cancelling war-risk coverage for Gulf transits. That effectively forces many carriers to reroute or demand higher premiums.

Container transport costs rise amid war

Reuters reported that at least 150 crude and LNG ( liquefied natural gas) tankers were anchored outside the strait amid heightening risk. Additionally, it reported that war-risk coverage cancellations were set to take effect March 5. That significantly raises the cost and complexity of operating in the area.

For container shipping, even a small slice of throughput plays an oversized role in global networks because of how these hubs link Asia, Europe and Africa. Gulf ports account for about 3%–4% of global container traffic via major gateways such as Jebel Ali and Abu Dhabi.

Faced with heightened risk, major container carriers including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC and CMA CGM have altered schedules. They have reduced Gulf calls and introduced emergency surcharges. CMA CGM’s emergency surcharge of $4,000 per 40-foot container on affected trade lanes and Hapag-Lloyd’s war-risk fees reflect carriers’ attempts to price risk into their contracts.

Levine at Freightos noted that “rerouting services or skipping calls in the Persian Gulf would likely push volumes to alternative hubs and could create congestion elsewhere.” He added that changes in one regional routing pattern can ripple globally through container network schedules and equipment availability.

New operating conditions for U.S. B2B ecommerce companies

For U.S. B2B ecommerce companies — distributors, marketplaces, and digital sellers whose supply chains span continents — the present turmoil intersects with core logistics assumptions:

• Predictability is reduced. Longer transit times and skipped port calls undermine algorithms that power available-to-promise and automated replenishment engines.
• Costs are rising and opaque. Emergency surcharges, war-risk add-ons and fuel price ripples tied to energy market volatility are entering landed cost calculations mid-cycle.
• Options are constrained. Air cargo, a traditional recourse for urgent shipments, is less accessible. Ocean capacity is rerouted or slowed. Forwarders grapple with broader uncertainty.

The unfolding centrifugal effects of Gulf and Middle East disruptions are likely to complicate fulfillment planning in the weeks ahead, especially for items that depend on tight timing or premium logistics options.

Effects of Middle East trade lanes on global supply chains

The crisis underscores how a small slice of global transport geography can have oversized effects on distributed supply chains. Even if only 3%–4% of global container volume transits directly through Gulf ports, the role these hubs play in connecting major trade lanes means their disruption degrades reliability across networks rather than isolating it.

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz’s outsized share of oil and gas traffic is driving broader energy price volatility that feeds into freight rates and fuel surcharges across maritime, air and ground modes. It accounts for 20%–25% of world energy shipments.

For U.S. B2B ecommerce operations, the net effect is not just higher sticker costs. It is the erosion of certainty. that is, the confidence that a buyer’s order will arrive when the online storefront said it would, at the cost it was quoted, and without manual intervention. In an environment where delivery promise is as critical as product availability, that erosion presents both risk and competitive opportunity.

If conflict persists and regional logistics chokepoints remain constrained, the advantage in B2B ecommerce may shift from lowest price to most resilient supply chain. That reality could reshape fulfillment strategies well beyond the Gulf.

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