The air cargo market is on track for exponential growth over the next two decades, with ecommerce as the driving force.

Despite facing significant challenges in early 2023 due to global economic uncertainty, the industry rebounded strongly in the latter half of the year, spurred by a surge in demand for Chinese ecommerce goods. And that trend continues to gain momentum in 2024, according to a new research and forecast report from Boeing.

“While the past year highlights short-term volatility, the industry has demonstrated long-term resilience,” the report states.

Over the past 20 years, air cargo has consistently grown at an average annual rate of 2.6%, despite multiple economic downturns.

Air cargo and ecommerce

The rapid expansion of ecommerce and express logistics networks is poised to significantly boost air cargo demand. The entry of fresh players into the ecommerce market accelerated this growth in late 2023. It also continues to underscore the critical role of air freight in the digital economy, where speed is paramount, Boeing says.

Global ecommerce revenues are projected to grow at an annual rate of 9% through 2029, with South Asia and Southeast Asia leading the charge as emerging markets. This sustained growth has transformed business-to-consumer (B2C) fulfillment, particularly as Chinese marketplaces ramp up direct-to-consumer delivery operations—a development that has been a notable change for the air cargo industry.

Global ecommerce sales have doubled over the past five years. They’ve surpassed $6 trillion and are set to continue their robust 9% annual growth.

Express carriers like FedEx, UPS, DHL, and Amazon, known for their speed and reliability, will be the biggest beneficiaries of this growth. Boeing forecasts express carrier volumes will rise 5.8% annually, outpacing the 3.6% growth expected for general cargo. That’s a significant 33% difference. General cargo typically consists of bulkier shipments managed by third-party logistics providers (3PLs).

Currently, express carriers account for 45% of global air cargo revenues. They’re followed by combination carriers, which operate both passenger and freighter aircraft, contributing about one-third. Dedicated all-cargo airlines managing general freight generate around 10% of revenues. Meanwhile, the remaining 10% comes from passenger airlines using their lower decks for cargo and baggage transport.

With ecommerce reshaping consumer habits and supply chain expectations, air cargo’s unmatched speed and flexibility are cementing its role as a cornerstone of the global economy. As the sector continues to evolve, express logistics and emerging markets will ensure its sky-high trajectory through 2043 and beyond.

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