Deloitte estimates that e-commerce sales could increase between 17-22% for the 2018 holiday season, which it defines as Nov. 1-Jan. 31.

E-commerce sales may increase 17-22% for the 2018 holiday season, according to the just-released Deloitte annual holiday forecast.

This would mean online sales would reach $128-134 billion measured from Nov. 1, 2018-Jan. 31, 2019, which is how the consultancy firm defines the 2018 holiday period.

Last year, Deloitte estimates that holiday sales increased 16.6% and reached $109.8 billion from Nov. 1 2017-Jan. 31, 2018. It had projected an 18-21% increase for the 2017 holiday season.

Deloitte’s healthy estimate is partly because of “solid disposable personal income growth,” says Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster. “A strong labor market should also aid retail spending, along with elevated consumer confidence and a stable personal savings rate of around 7%,” Bachman says.


Overall for the holiday season, Deloitte is projecting a 5.0-5.6% increase in total retail sales.

Deloitte does caution that there are some unknown factors in the coming months that could impact holiday spending, such as an increase in short-term interest rates and speculation that the stock market is overvalued.