U.S. shoppers may spend $138.50 billion with online retailers during the impending holiday season, an Internet Retailer analysis shows. This would be a 13.5% jump from an estimated $122.00 billion in web sales during the same Nov. 1 to Dec. 31 period in 2018.

Internet Retailer’s projected growth for online holiday sales 2019 would be a deceleration from the 2018 season’s 15.2% growth from $105.95 billion in online holiday revenue in 2017. Several factors contribute to the slowdown in ecommerce growth. Online sales through the first half of the year increased 12.6% from the same six months in 2018, according to retail data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce. This is the lowest year-over-year growth rate for the first half of the year since 2009, when ecommerce declined by 4.8%. From 2014 through 2018, the first six months of each year grew in the mid-14% to upper-15% range.

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