The rate that consumers return merchandise to retailers in 2025 will decrease compared to 2024, as will the total dollar value of returned products, according to a report from the National Retail Federation.
Data from the NRF and Happy Returns indicates retailers expect consumers to return 15.8% of their purchases in 2025. That’s lower than 2024’s 16.9% returns rate. NRF anticipates consumers returning $849.9 billion in merchandise throughout 2025.
In 2024, returns totaled $890 billion, according to the NRF. Also in 2024, U.S. ecommerce sales totaled about $1.19 trillion, according to previous Digital Commerce 360 reporting. Total retail sales (online and offline) reached about $5.25 trillion.
Katherine Cullen, vice president of industry and consumer insights at the NRF, said in a statement that returns don’t mark the end of a transaction.
“They provide an opportunity for retailers to create a positive experience for customers and can translate to brand loyalty,” Cullen said. “Retailers are constantly evolving and working to meet customer expectations, and they recognize the importance the returns process plays.”
About a third (33.1%) of the 1,060 consumers Digital Commerce 360 and Bizrate Insights surveyed about fulfillment, delivery and returns said they don’t think it should cost them anything if they don’t want to keep an item they purchased online. They like knowing they’re making a risk-free purchase, 39.1% said. Digital Commerce 360 has released additional survey data and more fulfillment-focused insights and strategies in the 2025 edition of its annual Ecommerce Fulfillment Report.
Rethinking returns for the 2025 holiday season
Kristen Kelly, senior vice president of product at Loop Returns, told Digital Commerce 360 that the evolution of online shopping in 2025 — including “the rise of conversational commerce through tools like ChatGPT” — will reshape how retailers approach returns in the 2025 holiday shopping season.
“As shopping experiences diversify, returns are naturally following suit,” Kelly said. “Convenience remains a top priority for consumers, who expect a seamless experience whether they’re purchasing multiple items to try at home or using AI-driven tools to discover new products.”
On the retailer side, managing the shift goes beyond processing returns, Kelly said. Retailers and brands have to rethink sourcing and pricing strategies to protect their margin, according to Kelly, who cited shifting tariff policies and global supply chain disruption as key factors. And for consumers, inflation and “broader economic uncertainty” are influencing both expectations and spending habits.
“As a result, the cost and complexity of handling returns — from inspection to restocking — have become even more significant,” Kelly said. “To address these challenges, we’re seeing more retailers explore creative cost-management solutions, such as integrating opt-in return coverage or adjusting pricing structures to account for potential returns.”
Bracketing is one of the prominent consumers shaping these strategies, she added. The term bracketing refers to shoppers intentionally ordering multiple sizes or styles of apparel products with the intention to return the parts of their orders that don’t suit the looks they desire.
She said it has prompted apparel retailers to focus more on optimizing:
- Fit guidance
- Product detail pages
- Sizing tools
- Imagery
- Predictive technologies
Each plays a role in preventing “unnecessary” returns, she noted. Combined, these strategies indicate a shift to retailers taking a more proactive, tech-enabled approach to returns.
Fewer free returns
More than half (54.2%) of consumers said they consider free return shipping when making a purchase, Digital Commerce 360 data indicates. Furthermore, more than a third (33.9%) said having to pay for return shipping frustrated them.
But “retailers are moving away from the era of ‘free-for-all’ returns,” Kelly said. “In the past, generous policies like free shipping on returns or extended windows were seen as loyalty builders.”
Now, she noted, the above-mentioned cost pressures make these models unsustainable for retailers. To minimize the impact of such changes in policy, retailers must offer clarity and convenience where they forego leniency.
“What matters now is transparency: being upfront about timelines, fees, and expectations, and delivering a return process that feels effortless,” Kelly said.
Some retailers and brands, she said, are using loyalty-program incentives such as faster refunds or free exchanges for top-tier rewards members “to maintain goodwill while balancing costs.” Consumers understand that retailers are being more restrictive with returns policies, she said. However, they expect their experience to match the value retailers offer.
35.9% of consumers cited cost and 34.1% cited convenience as main considerations they’ve factored into their online purchases, Digital Commerce 360 data shows. The next most popular reason consumers cited was a retailer’s return policy — which includes the time frame and restrictions — at 29.6%.
“Retailers can also build trust by providing clear delivery timelines and transparent policies,” she said. “Making return information easy to find and setting realistic expectations can deter impulse buying and reduce frustration later.”
Some returns are inevitable
“Retailers can better manage the inevitable spike in holiday returns by investing in digital tools that streamline operations and improve the customer experience,” Kelly said.
Technologies that enable flexible return methods are helping brands make the process faster and more intuitive for shoppers. At the same time, they’re reducing manual strain on fulfillment teams, according to Kelly. Such technologies include convenient drop-off partnerships, QR-code-based label alternatives and scheduled at-home pickups.
Kelly noted that Loop Returns is also seeing retailers “focus on smarter logistics rather than simply cheaper ones” this holiday season.
Smarter logistics can mean integrating platforms that consolidate shipments or negotiate discounted carrier rates, she said. Using such approaches can help retailers reduce the cost of return shipping without compromising speed or service, she added.
“Ultimately, it’s about balancing operational efficiency with consumer trust, ensuring the returns process feels as seamless and considered as the purchase itself,” Kelly said.
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