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Nonstore sales drive the bulk of retail sales growth in January

New retail sales data out today from the U.S. Commerce Department suggests that online retailers did particularly well in January, following a record December for e-commerce.

The retail industry as a whole also did well during the period, but it looks like the bulk of the growth in retail is being driven by e-commerce.

What the Commerce Department calls nonstore sales reached $49.224 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis in January. That’s a 12.0% gain compared with $43.965 billion in January of 2016—a slight deceleration from December’s 13.2% jump, which was the largest year-over-year gain since July 2016.

Nonstore sales occur mainly on the web but also include categories of retail sales that are declining, such as mail and phone orders, and door-to-door sales.

The numbers out of the Commerce Department give further evidence e-commerce is representing a growing portion of the total retail industry.

Total retail sales, when factoring out automobile dealers, fuel and foodservice, reached $287.83 billion in January. That’s a 3.8% increase compared with $277.42 billion in the prior year. An Internet Retailer analysis shows that nonstore sales accounted for roughly 50.6% of that $10.40 billion increase.

Plus, sales in physical stores grew roughly 2.5%—to $239.19 billion from $233.46 billion—in January, a growth rate that pales in comparison to the 12.0% jump in nonstore sales.

On a nonadjusted basis, or when not accounting for seasonal variations, nonstore sales reached $47.00 billion in January, a 14.5% increase compared with $41.04 billion in January 2016.

Since nonstore sales include the types of transactions that are typically declining, like door-to-door sales, the growth in nonstore sales is consistently lower than the growth in e-commerce sales.

The agency reports fourth quarter e-commerce sales figures on Friday. Based on nonstore sales figures released thus far, Internet Retailer expects that e-commerce in Q4 2016 grew roughly 16.0% or more compared with Q4 2015—a growth rate not seen since 2013.

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