(Bloomberg)—An explosion in online shopping in Asia has policy makers scrambling to gauge its effects on their economies. Here’s how eight economies across the region are digesting the e-commerce boom via the work of their central bankers and statistics agencies:
Australia
Central bank Governor Philip Lowe says retail deflation is likely to “persist for quite some time” after Amazon Inc. Australia’s debut in 2017. “If you look at the price index for basically supermarket food, it hasn’t moved anywhere for five or six years,” said Lowe on Feb. 8, on retail deflation and Amazon’s likely impact. Clothing and footwear prices fell 3% last year, and furniture declined by a similar amount as foreign retailers entered new market segments. Lowe says online vendors are “shaking up the Australian industry,” forcing other retailers to find efficiency savings, and that the “the process has further to run.”
China
China e-commerce sales totaled 31 trillion yuan ($4.9 trillion) last year and are growing at about a 30% annual rate, according to the commerce ministry. Government’s consumer prices survey includes online sales, but the commerce ministry also is using earnings reports and “big data” to gauge e-commerce impact. Additionally, a unit within the commerce ministry meets with e-commerce businesses and conducts studies with research institutions.
India
The Statistics Office is considering including e-commerce in retail inflation data as early as this year, which could herald lower prices in the short term, said a senior government official. “There’s loud thinking on including online sales in inflation,” said M.V.S. Ranganadham, statistics ministry director general. “We don’t have relevant data flow at the moment. We are looking for it. Now, it has become very important.” India’s e-commerce made up 1.5% of total sales, worth 49 trillion rupees ($752 billion), in fiscal year to March 2017, according to Crisil Research, arm of Standard and Poor’s. India’s e-commerce is tipped to grow 2.5 times by 2020 to reach 1.8 trillion rupees, led by the online grocery segment, Crisil reports.
Japan
A government task force of companies—including Visa Inc. and Money Forward Inc.—is brainstorming how to improve household data that captures some online spending. “Making better data amid vast changes in the economy isn’t only about the number of head counts at our bureau. That requires good statisticians with knowledge and education,” says Taijiro Ako, director of consumer statistics division at Statistics Bureau of Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Ako Online purchases also might make a bigger presence in Japan’s Consumption Trend Index, an upcoming measure that is meant to better capture personal spending through a bigger sample size and collection of data via mobile app.
Malaysia
Malaysia’s statistics department estimates 87% of Malaysians use the internet daily, and 80% of those users seek information on goods and services. A “big data” initiative was created to explore online pricing and inflation. Malaysia’s statistics department also now has unit dedicated to compiling indicators to measure e-commerce.
Philippines
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas sees a growing popularity of e-commerce among Filipinos. Central Bank has joined with Philippine Statistics Authority to use big data to assess e-commerce impact. Central Bank’s statistics team are tracking wholesale and retail trade and price, credit and payment figures in online transactions, according to an e-mailed statement. Central Bank also is seeking real-time data to improve on old models because it sees e-commerce lowering inflation via ease of doing business versus bricks-and-mortar. Central Bank “hires and encourages staff to be immersed in” big data analytics and data science.
South Korea
South Korea’s statistics office more than doubled the number of online products surveyed for its consumer price index to 109 products from December 2016 in order to reflect growth in online retail. The Bank of Korea has said it will consider reflecting online purchases as it decides on a new inflation target later this year that will be applied from 2019.
Thailand
The Bank of Thailand is working with the Ministry of Commerce to inject more online pricing into the consumer price index. Lower operating costs among online vendors and greater transparency in pricing is contributing to downward price pressures, the Central Bank says. “This ‘Amazon effect’ is well documented in the U.S., but we think they also play a substantial role in keeping inflation low in Thailand as well,” said the Bank of Thailand statement.
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