Global web sales will account for nearly 6% of worldwide retail in 2014 and 8.8% in 2018, according to an eMarketer report.

Global e-commerce sales will reach $1.316 trillion this year, up 22.2% from $1.077 trillion in 2013, and web sales will account for 5.9% of all global retail sales in 2014. That’s according to a projection released today by market research firm eMarketer in its first forecast of global e-commerce sales.

In 2015, worldwide web sales will increase nearly 21.0% to $1.592 trillion; e-commerce next year will account for 6.7% of all retail sales around the world. EMarketer also projects:

  • Global e-commerce will increase 18.6% year over year in 2016, to $1.888 trillion, with web sales accounting for 7.4% of total retail
  • Global e-commerce will increase 16.4% in 2017, to $2.197 trillion, with web sales accounting for 8.2% of total retail.
  • Global e-commerce will increase 13.3% in 2018 to $2.489 trillion, with web sales accounting for 8.8% of total retail.

EMarketer says its estimates include retail products and services bought on the Internet.

Two countries account for most global e-commerce, today’s report says. “China and the U.S. are by far the world’s leading e-commerce markets, combining for more than 55% of world’s internet retail sales in 2014,” eMarketer says. “China’s growth over the next five years will widen the gap between the two countries, and China will exceed $1 trillion in retail ecommerce sales by 2018, more than a 40% share of worldwide retail e-commerce. The U.S. will maintain its position as the second-largest retail e-commerce market in 2018, totaling nearly $500 billion in 2018, while the U.K. will account for about one-quarter of that figure in a distant third place.”

Below are the Top 10 e-commerce countries in 2014 as measured by sales, with projected web sales this year and their year-over-year percentage gain from 2013:

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  • China (excluding Hong Kong), $426.26 billion, 35.0%
  • U.S., $305.65 billion, 15.7%
  • U.K., $82.00 billion, 16.5%
  • Japan, $70.83 billion, 14.0%
  • Germany, $63.38 billion, 22.1%
  • France, $38.36 billion, 12.1%
  • South Korea, $33.11 billion, 13.0%
  • Canada, $24.63 billion, 17.4%
  • Russia, $17.47 billion, 16.0%
  • Brazil, $16.28 billion, 22.0%