A new poll finds retailers expect 6% of holiday sales will come from mobile.

While a little less than half, or 45%, of e-retailers in a recent poll expect holiday web sales to be higher this year compared with 2011, 53% predict sales will remain about the same, according to Chase Paymentech, which processes payments for online and store retailers. Only 2% of e-retailers expect slightly lower online sales this holiday season than in 2011. No retailers predict a significant web sales decrease, Chase says.

The Chase Paymentech “eHoliday Shopping Monitor” asked 178 retailers about their predictions for online sales over the upcoming holidays. The poll was conducted in mid-September.

The merchants surveyed expect more than half (51%) of their holiday sales to come from e-commerce. However, they expect mobile commerce to account for only 6% of holiday sales. 45% think average order value for online sales will be about the same as last year; 39% think it will be higher; 14% slightly lower and 2% significantly lower.

When it comes to both online and offline sales combined, nearly six in 10 of the retailers (59%) expect higher overall sales this holiday season compared with 2011, while almost half (47%) expect total holiday sales to be better than pre-recession levels in 2007.

The poll also finds that many retailers are marketing though online social networks, with 89% of those who plan to offer digital promotions saying they will use Facebook for marketing; 70% will use Twitter.


On a broader scale, 65% of the e-commerce companies polled say the 2012 shopping season will have a positive impact on the U.S. economy. 80% say the U.S. economy will either remain the same or improve over the next 12 months, compared with 20% expecting conditions to get worse.